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Title: A probabilistic approach to remnant life predictions of corroded pipelines
Category: Pigsource Papers
Downloadable: Yes 
Project No.:
Research Agency:
Catalog No.: pg3533
Date of Publication: Oct 1 2008 12:00AM
Price: $25.00 US
Authors: Dr Érika S M Nicoletti and Ricardo Dias de Souza
Abstract: Pipeline operators must be capable of accurately predicting their pipelines’ remnant lives in order to settle their future logistics strategy. The major time dependent threat to pipeline integrity is corrosion, which must be carefully monitored in order to guarantee acceptable operational safety margins. Indeed, it has become a common practice to perform periodical pipeline metal-loss inspections by smart pigs and, after each inspection; to assess the results in order to evaluate current as much as future pipeline-integrity conditions. Nevertheless, the ordinary deterministic pipeline-integrity forecast models typically overestimate future required pipeline repairs. This over-conservatism classically rises exponentially with time. The objective of this work is to introduce a methodology appropriate to predict remnant pipeline service life for long time intervals; the goal is to forecast costs of future pipeline rehabilitation projects in order to ascertain suitable freight rates. For each defect assessed, individual average corrosion rates are calculated and settled with local probabilistic distribution parameters. Future rehabilitation costs are estimated considering each defect’s future failure probability.
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