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Title: A methodology for the prediction of pipeline failure frequency due to external interference.
Category: Pigsource Papers
Downloadable: Yes 
Project No.:
Research Agency:
Catalog No.: pg3485
Date of Publication: Feb 1 2009 12:00AM
Price: $25.00 US
Authors: C Lyons, Dr Jane V Haswell, Dr Phil Hopkins, R Ellis, and N Jackson
Abstract: The United Kingdom Onshore Pipeline Operators Association (UKOPA) is developing supplements to the UK pipeline codes BSI PD 8010 and IGE/TD/1. These supplements will provide a standardized approach for the application of quantified risk assessment to pipelines. UKOPA has evaluated and recommended a methodology: this paper covers the background to, and justification of, this methodology. The most relevant damage mechanism which results in pipeline failure is external interference. Interference produces a gouge, dent, or a dent-gouge.

This paper describes the fracture mechanics model used to predict the probability failure of pipelines containing dent and gouge damage and contains predictions of failure frequency obtained using the gas industry failure frequency prediction methodology ‘FFREQ’, and operational failure data from the UKOPA fault database. The failure model and prediction methodology are explained and typical results are presented and discussed.

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