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Title: 10-6 and all that: what do failure probabilities mean?
Category: Technical papers from the Journal of Pipeline Engineering
Downloadable: Yes 
Project No.:
Research Agency:
Catalog No.: 2274s
Date of Publication: Dec 1 2012 12:00AM
Price: $25.00 US
Authors: Prof. Andrew Palmer
Abstract: PIPELINE RELIABILITY analysis appears at first sight to be related to the probability analysis to which everyone is accustomed. In reality, it is substantially different, and the numerical failure probabilities it arrives at are nominal and unrelated to real probabilities. This matters because it misleads the engineer and the wider community, and because it may lead to an illusion of confidence and safety that the analysis and the underlying data do not begin to justify. The paper discusses the problem, and how codes might be better written.
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